The abject failure of North Korea's attempt to launch a rocket on Friday to put a satellite into orbit has increased the likelihood that the regime will carry out a new nuclear test.
Kim Kwan-jin, the South Korean defence minister, told a parliamentary committee in Seoul that intelligence reports indicate the North is making preparations for a test, which would be the third time it has detonated a nuclear device.
"I believe it's possible because North Korea has been making preparations for a long time," Kim said.
Analysts agree that the failure of the launch – monitors indicate that it suffered catastrophic structural failure about one minute after it was fired and fell into the ocean off the west coast of the Korean peninsula – is a humiliation to a regime that had made the event the centrepiece of celebrations to mark the 100th anniversary of the birth of the founder of the nation, Kim Il-Sung.
Protesters burn an effigy of North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un attached to a missile near the U.S. embassy in Seoul, South Korea
It was also designed to cement the legitimacy of the inexperienced new leader of the reclusive state, 28-year-old Kim Jung-on, who took over after the death of his father, Kim Jong-il, in December.
"The North Korean regime is based on three fundamental values," said Toshimitsu Shigemura, a professor at Tokyo's Waseda University and author of a number of books on the North Korean leadership.
"The first is the legitimacy of the regime; the second is its desire to pursue what it sees as 'noble causes'; and the third is the concept of face" he said. "This failure means they have lost legitimacy, they have failed in a noble cause and there has been massive loss of face.
South Koreans look towards the North Korean side with binoculars at the Unification Observatory, near the demilitarized zone (DMZ) which separates the two Koreas in Paju, north of Seoul
"To win some of that back, they need a new achievement," he said. "A new nuclear test would provide that."
South Korean intelligence recently reported that satellite imagery indicates the North is excavating a new tunnel at its Punggye-ri test site, in the north-east of the country, where the two previous tests were carried out in October 2006 and May 2009.
North Korea's state broadcaster KRT announces the failure of the country's planned rocket launch
"It would appear to me that they are now more inclined to do such a test," said Jun Okumura, a senior adviser and political analyst with the Eurasia Group. "I also think that the need for a successful test has risen with this failure and the stakes for the regime have gone up.
"There would be very serious loss of face if they suffer another debacle."
No comments:
Write comments