Let the battle of the rallies commence A weekend of mass open-air rallies are in store as the candidates vie to inject "people power" into the final sprint before the first round on April 22. But can they alter the course of the election?
For the past week, Sarkozy has repeatedly claimed he can feel 'the wave rising'
Francois Hollande will be holding a mega-meeting by the Chateau de Vincennes, eastern Paris, whose park he hopes to fill with picnicking families in holiday mode – French school half-term starts tomorrow. To help draw the crowds, a free concert will be thrown in.
Not to be outdone, Nicolas Sarkozy is to hold a simultaneous rally in Place de la Concorde – apparently it was a late decision after he considered it dangerous to leave the capital to Hollande with the first round only a week away.
There are risks attached in both cases.
For the past week, Sarkozy has repeatedly claimed he can feel "the wave rising" as support from the "silent majority" swells. Three polls today suggest otherwise (CSA found Hollande had overtaken him in round one with 27 to his 26 per cent, and that he would romp home in round two on May 6 with 57 per cent to Sarkozy's 43).
His UMP camp is pulling out the stops to ensure a crowd of at least 50,000.
But if they fail, the "rising wave" will look more like a sinking ship. As Le Monde's Arnaud Leparmentier tweeted today the "silent majority is looking more and more silent". The choice of Concorde will also inevitably lead to comparisons with Sarkozy's victory celebrations in the same square in 2007, a heady night when he promised not to let the hopes of a nation down, but also the start of the "bling" period that cost him so dear. That is the subliminal message behind Hollande's joke that Sarkozy does not spell "Concorde" but "discord".
The square is also, bien sur, a place where heads have rolled.
The risks for Hollande are to appear too triumphant and festive. He unwisely shouted: "We're going to win!" on Thursday night in Clermand Ferrand and had to tone things down today by saying: "We can win". Students of Neil Kinnock's Sheffield rally know that one should never pop the champagne corks too early.
The naturally jocular Hollande mustn't lose the statesmanlike pathos he's worked so hard to project. If the rally turns into a love-in he risks playing into Sarkozy's claims that it's all very well throwing a party buy the hangover could bring France to its knees, As Sarkozy's spokeswoman Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet said today, "We don't need a concert, it's not 'bread and circuses' for us."
Hence Hollande's comments in Libération, in which he said: "I'm not asking you to marry me. I'm not campaigning simply to generate joy. I have a higher responsibility."
Before the dual commences, however, both may be upstaged by the campaign king of mega-rallies, leftist firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who will be holding his big one on Marseille's Prado beach on Saturday.
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